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Newsletter - 09/07/2024

SPECIAL MARKET SITUATION

This is the first time in well over a year that I have ever felt a situation had the potential to be serious enough to warrant a headline like that.

AH (After hours) on Friday USDJPY had a very quick move down causing the NQs and the ES to drop. 

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After a little sleuthing, I learned that Sunday night Japan will release a lot of economic numbers and China will release their inflation rate.  

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Japan is already fragile.  The $JPY is alternately being manipulated and attacked.  Now add in Annual GDP Growth and other interest rate sensitive numbers and it sets the stage for even more volatility.

Now let's add in China inflation numbers.

Add a "suddenly" weak US market that appears to be in the Goldilocks Zone of Hell: economic numbers that provide LESS clarity as to how big of a cut the Fed will do.

Finally, the AH move of the $JPY was someone who believes the releases Sunday night will bring more bad news in my opinion.

BOTTOMLINE:

Risk is extremely high that IF either Japan or China release news that is disappointing to the market, it has the potential to ignite the "dread" in the market to a full fledge panic Monday morning.  Is this guaranteed?  No.  But the probability is extremely high.  

Do I think this is the start of the "Big Drop?"  No idea.  I think this has the high potential for things to go down very fast.  How much? Greater than -4%.  Closer to -5%.

What can you do now? Nothing.  Then why am I sharing this if there is nothing you do?  Because if it happens, remember if it were me and I still owned common stocks or was force invested in a 401k, it's too late for this one (if it happens).  BUT, remember this, remember how it feels, and do what you can to protect your capital for the next time.

Stay calm.  Don't get pulled into the hype if it happens.  Don't trade if your emotions are peaked.

Now back to the regularly scheduled programming.

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No matter how many times I have been through this it always amazes me that even after 31 years even I get a little tempted to join the emotions and "buzz" of the stock market this past week.  And the market was exciting.  There was this feeling of excitement that I could tell was causing me to review trades I was in and trades I was looking to take.  These are examples of my internal dialogue, which were starting to be magnified by my growing emotions, going on in my head:

  • Sunday: Maybe I should take some profits. 

  • Monday: Maybe I need to protect the profits I have in open trades and look for an inverse position to the long side.

  • Tuesday: Excellent, Market is down.  I can take some profits now even though they are borderline, maybe I should do that.  But market is at support though.

  • Wednesday: Yeah, market is still holding that support - this market could be reversing.  Let's just load the trades in case I decide to.

  • Thursday: Market still holding support.  Jobs number tomorrow has got to come in good for the market - the entire market is planning on it.  If it reverses to the long side my put positions are going to get smashed.  

  • Friday: Well that worked out well.  Weekend.  Bloody week.  Time to lock in some profits.

  • Friday AH: Aww crap - market is still going down and I think Monday is going to bloody.  If I had not scaled - nope.  Protect capital.  The higher the market volatility the tighter the leash.  

At each one of those examples my responses were:

  • Wait for price to confirm.

  • Not part of the plan.

  • Follow the rules.

  • You know better.

  • Good job.

I don't know of any trader that is able to excise completely this type of internal dialogue.  In fact, I believe this type of mental back and forth is good and necessary and actually leads to a higher degree of confidence when I am in the trade; sorta like getting all the objection and temptation out of the way at the beginning.

At anytime all of those thoughts were being magnified by my emotions that were being sparked by the market action.  Add to all of that: ongoing discussions in Discord as well as private conversations with VIPs and well, it can be a challenge sometimes to find enough clear "head space" to continue to monitor open and possible trade ideas.  However, because I have arrived at a decision after doing my typical analysis I am significantly less likely to succumb to any of the above temptations.

The point is this: I battle with some of the things YOU battle with in trading.  Even though I have almost 100k hours of screen time, even though I have made thousands of trades, even though I was mentored by an incredible natural trainer - even with all of those benefits I still am challenged with temptation to break the rules.  What stops me is all the data.  That every time I am tempted I remind myself of the data but not the data you might think.  Not the successful data.  Not the returns, not the gains.  No.  The data that I am talking about is this:

Every single time I have allowed myself to give even an inch to any of the above temptations it has exponentially increased the chance of ME not only making a good trade a very bad trade but also it started a sequence of bad decisions.

Look. 

I know its hard;  Suck it up. 

I know it sometimes feels like you are making no progress;  You are.  Maybe that progress is backwards.  Maybe it's forwards. 

I know that even with the community trading can be lonely: losses are yours and no one really seems to care about the wins (except for theBoss); I understand.  Toughen up.  This is your MONEY.  It's serious business.

I know sometimes you feel so much hope and yet at other times, you feel like you will never stop losing money in the stock market.  The hope is valid.  Make the fear of losing a reminder of what you are fighting against: all that money that has been stolen from you by the industry and Washington D.C. via the stock market and all of its' bad actors.  I always trade a little angry.

I have been often asked what is the secret to successful trading.  I often answer with different answers because for each person the answer is often different.  But if I am pressed to really boil it down to what does it take to be a consistent trader, what will it take to stop giving into all the bad temptations from above, when will I stop consistently LOSING money, when will I stop doing what I KNOW is wrong, etc.?

You must become sick and tired, of being sick and tired.

It's not a cute saying.  It's the place I had to get to before I was willing to completely trust the process, follow the rules explicitly, and humble myself.  It was the point that I had to start really accepting responsibility for MY bad decisions trading.  It wasn't the market's fault.  It wasn't the Shorts.  The losses were mine.  And I had to get to the point where I sucked it up and started acting like freaking ADULT.  Seriously.  Money is THE decider between a little more access to the world or a lot less of everything.  You have enough that you can invest.  Either be serious about protecting that asset or don't: but stop fooling yourself that you can be somewhere in the middle.  

If you want to get to the "sick and tired of being sick and tired" decision point and you just can't seem to find the trigger?  I can help with that.

I want you to following steps exactly as that are written:

  1. Print out the last 12 months of the $ amounts of the losing positions in your account with a total.

  2. Print out the last 12 months of losing trades in your accounts with a total $ amount. 

  3. Ask someone who you trust to keep whatever you share in confidence; if you are married, your spouse.  But find someone that you can sit down with that when you share the reasons for each of the losses in #1 and #2 you will feel embarrassed with.  Someone who will give you honest feedback.  

Hard?  Of course.  But the goal is to finally change your investment and trading fortunes.  Or are you here just for entertainment?  And why don't I have you pick out the winners and share them?  Because you wouldn't be reading this unless you were at least just a little bit interested in not losing money consistently, correct?  Which tells me that you probably do NOT have a methodology that consistently makes money.  Which means your winners were luck or someone elses.

Life is short.  The only thing that you cannot make more of is TIME - so make the most of it. 

You CAN make more money though. 

Are you ready?

Week in Review

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Model Portfolio - since 5/9/2023

This Week:

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Last Week:

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In my last newsletter from two weeks ago I said that the higher probability was that the market would go higher.  And it tried too all the week before Labor Day and failed.  Bad.  When this happens investors sentiment quickly shifts from hopeful expectation to nervousness to fear.  This week we were between the nervousness and fear stage.  We will see what happens Sunday night.

I say all this to provide the basis for why I decided to take profits on some trades this week.  In each case it was because the Reward to Risk had suddenly become skewed to the risk side.

Closed trades this past week:

  • $HIMS Oct 14P SCALE: +50% in 3 days

  • $ENVX Oct 9P SCALE: +94% in 3 days - Tuesday is the shareholder vote which could be a high risk binary event.  Plus, I made 94% in 3 days.  

  • $EOSE Jan2026 2C SCALE+80% in 25 days

Closed Positions

$HIMS Oct 14P SCALE: +50% in 3 days

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$ENVX Oct 9P SCALE: +94% in 3 days

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$EOSE Jan2026 2C SCALE+80% in 25 days

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THIS AND THAT

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As a reminder of who is in charge of setting new Federal regulations that are meant to "protect" you.  $JPM did not want to have to increase their capital requirements to 25%.  Why would that be?

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Bad.  Adds another negative momentum ingredient to al already crowded pot.

(from Zerhodge)

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Tech leadership remains in place - to the downside.  And all of a sudden the market has figured out that consumer spending is slowing down a lot.

(from Zerhodge)

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Before you get excited about the headline to the right, look at the details.

The Long/Short ratio is still at 1.75.  That means the market still is heavily long. 

Wait until it goes negative.

(from Zerhodge)

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USDJPY must hold level is 140.  It is a significant support level and has been defended multiple times before.  If that fails, look out below.

A BIT OF HISTORY:

Purely from a "data source" standpoint I thought it would be worthwhile to look at some of my past opinions and see how they have played out:​

  • Last year at this time experts were calling for six rate cuts.  I said there would be none.

  • Last year at this time experts were not talking about a recession when I was saying we were in one and it would get works.  It is.

  • Last year all of the experts were (and some of them are still idiotically talking about it) saying the Fed could engineer a "Soft Landing" despite the fact that they had NEVER been able to do so in the past.  Not one single time.  And yet here we are today.

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My point in listing these examples is not some "ego-stroke" for me.  It is meant to provide evidence that as a predictive data source, I am pretty good.  Therefore my response to those who think #CRE will just be able to putter forward without any further damage?  You are wrong.  I am right.

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$ENVX and $EOSE

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Only one thing is going to prevent $ENVX from closing the gap down to $6.88: news.

Barring that momentum in the stock is getting stronger to the downside (MACDHisto).

The Institutional selling is increasing and sellers are in firmly in control (MCDX).

The weekly is no better.

There is a real risk that due to the overall market weakness that $ENVX could make a new low.

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Called the bottom.  Also scaled very near the top.  

I believe the DOE Loan will be announced by 11/15/24 and it will trigger 1-3 customer announcements

I also think that barring any outlier bad news that the stock could see over $4 by the end of the year.  

Current support is $2.16 with major support at $2.

$SPY

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Is that a doubletop? Yes.

Do doubletops mean the upward move is over? No.

But any further up move by the market just became that much harder - good thing that Jerome will come to the rescue with a rate cut.  The problem now is no one knows how big of a cut is going to happen on 9/18.  

At least one of the other outlier events on the same day is no longer a concern: Trump will not be sentenced.

That leaves VIXexperiation which can result in exaggerated moves leading up to it.

Coupled with the corporate buyback window closing this week and it's easy to see why I believe the "Invisible Hand" is gone.

$QQQ

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Daily and Weekly charts of the $QQQs is worse than the $SPY charts because instead of a possible double top, they have a declining channel now defined.  

476-500 is a big resistance area.  

Support is minor at the 8/5 low of 423.

Major support starts at 412 and goes down to 400.

If 400 breaks, it will lead a selling pulse I believe.

ANNOUNCEMENTS

  • In coming weeks I will be doing a special Podcast wherein I will share a complete professional history about myself, why I am doing this community and what my ultimate goals are.  You are not going to want to miss it.

  • I am also working on putting detail to my VIP curriculum in the form of a short book and I hope to have that done by the end of 2024.

Doom 

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Anti Doom

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PODCAST:

The Podcast library is here.

VIDEOS:

The Video library is here.

Paid Memberships:

Look, there are a LOT of scammers out there on FinTwit.  99.99% of them care only about selling packages of crap.  SOME OF THEM ARE CHARGING AS MUCH AS $5,000 PER MONTH!  None of them include what helped make me a better trader: having a mentor.  Having someone who will be your PERSONAL TEACHER, COACH AND ACCOUNTABILITY PARTNER.  A Mentor that has over 90,000 hours of screen time.  That by itself is invaluable.

People ask why I charge.  First, I want only VIPs that are committed and "having skin in the game" guarantees this.  Second, because my time is valuable.

See what others are saying:

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Don't forget the Discord live chat is STILL FREE but it will be closing to new members soon.  In fact, we have already started removing non-active members. 

  • In the meantime, come and join us - its the best community out there: Discord.

  • Also, be sure to check out the new page for Daytrading on the website, run by the fine gents @BaconTurkeyClub and @Juggernaut.  If you ever wanted to learn or just watch two pros daytrade live, they are at it every day here: DiscordFuturesChannel.

  • Finally, be sure to check out VampireTrades and his amazing penny stock trades.

Thankyou Family!

theBoss

Nothing above is investment advice nor should it be construed as investment advice.  It is offerred for entertainment purposes only.  Always consult your advisors before investing any money.  Do not "follow" or "mirror" any trade ideas provided.  Mr.NotAdvice is not a licensed or registered investment advisor.  Do your own research.

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