Newsletter - 08/25/2024
Hope.
I have already spelled out why I am voting for Trump. For one simple reason: given the two candidates, which of the two are most likely to increase my childrens' freedoms and which are most likely to decrease? Nothing else matters.
But now, with Kennedy supporting Trump, I have growing hope that we are at a juncture in history that future generations will speak about as a turning point for our country where we start focussing on what we all AGREE on instead of being at war
with each other over that we disagree about. As if we live in a world where anyone agrees 100% with anyone else. That is not how we have been created and that is not what we are.
Now I have been a vocal critic of Kennedy and in his amazing act yesterday I learned something about my own biases. I had always viewed Kennedy as just another crazy Kennedy/Third party candidate. Certainly some of his comments about redistribution of wealth were what made me decide he was really just a Socialist. But yesterday he reminded me that I TOO am guilty of focusing on what I disagree with because listening to his entire speech and then his Trump campaign appearance, I was absolutely surprised at how much my head was nodding "Yes." More surprising was this feeling of hope for our nation and the future for our children. I was inspired by him.
If Trump follows through, which I believe he will, the two of them are the absolute nightmare of a team for the Deep State. If Kennedy is made the Secretary of Health, he will oversee the NIH, CDC, FDC,, ASPR and ATSDR. The last two are very important because the ASPR is the Agency for Strategic Preparedness and Response and they do exactly what their name indicates: make sure the US is prepared for any possible health emergency. LEGITIMATE not driven by corporate greed health emergencies. The ATSDR is the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. If he is able to actually get conditions listed as a toxic substance or as disease causing it would be incredibly powerful and long lasting.
I am sure there are some of you reading saying "Yeah, yeah - he's like all other politicians. . . " STOP. I know you have been "groomed" to focus on the negative. I know you have been let down by your leaders. A lot. So have I. But the same risk analysis I apply to investing and trading I am applying to what is happening and everything I list is a good/great probability if Trump is elected. So all I am asking you to do is to trust ME. Do you honestly think that I would put my limited reputation to go all in on a candidate if I hadn't considered the risks and the probability of success? What is my profit? Maybe I convince one voter to flip and that voter convinces someone else and our kids' futures look drastically different - hopeful. What's my other choice? Give up on hope? Cmon.
Unfortunately, the opposition is not just going to allow a coronation. If you think that there will not be an attempt at some event to swing the election than you are not thinking you are feeling. They have done everything they can to keep both of these guys off the ballots, they have tried to kill one of them, they will lose so much money but more importantly, they stand to lose POWER. No one gives up that much power willingly. And the threat of jail would be very real for some of "they."
I think that assassination will be the method most likely used. When they do it is no longer an issue as Trump being POTUS and Kennedy being part of his governing team, would put them both living in enemy territory: the Swamp. Assassination is the only method that thus far, no decision makers have ever been identified let alone arrested. It also requires the smallest circle of participants. And they are prepared already.
While the FBI recently warned the public that there could be connectivity issues during the election (yes, it's true - I endeavor not to put anything out that is not a fact if I am representing it as a fact) I think that it would be incredibly harder this time around to stuff ballot boxes or for observers to be just prevented from observing. I am not going to say it is not going to happen but delaying the election in any way is going to be a difficult thing to do without significant blowback. Unless people are afraid.
A health emergency could make people afraid. Even with more and more people realizing that Covid was created with the help of world governments resulting in a massive loss of life and a massive transfer of money from you and I through our tax dollars to global companies. Even though this truth is being learned, if children in the US start dying, fear will result. Using this method to delay the election would not require a full lockdown. Only a meaningful disruption in those states that are in play would be needed. This would require a much larger team of decision makers and participants.
Direct War with Russia is another option I see being bantered in the TwitterXsphere. While I think this would check a lot of the boxes for the "they" group the difficulty is that the public is already against more war. The public's opinion would have to be drastically changed to "fear." This could be done through a false flag terrorist attack
If anyone is reading and saying to themselves "Well this guy is obviously a conspiracy theorist" let me assure you, I AM and the one's I choose to "support" are the ones I have analyzed and studied. And for those who might be saying "None of this matters because both the candidates are bought and owned" then my response is that while I don't think so but if there is any truth to it but if there is, the list of industries that they aren't going after is getting smaller. By the way, Kennedy hates the banks.
Finally, if you wonder why I am discussing this entire topic other than as a current event? Because the outcome of the election will have a drastic and direct effect on your money. Because the leadup to THIS election has a higher probability of an outlier event then any election in modern history. Because there are TWO major regional conflicts involving global superpowers pulling the strings. THIS election matters for those reasons. But more so for all of the other reasons I have shared.
For those of you that think conspiracies are just that, I leave you with Flouride. Crazies said it was put into water to kill us. Normies said it was for our teeth. Crazies win again. And this is a GOVERNMENT report.
Week in Review
Model Portfolio - since 5/9/2023
This Week:
Last Week:
While it was a decent week trading the overall portfolio is down because I took losses the previous week on seven trades (two were 100% losses on a pair of Lotto trades) and the wins during the same period were not enough: four wins.
However, I still have open positions that are up 100% that I can close and they alone would push the portfolio past 40% for the year. But my analysis says we have higher to go, at least that's the higher probability.
Closed trades this past week:
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$QLD Oct 101C SCALE: +104% in 1 day
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$KRE Sept 50P: -78% in 10 days
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$BYON Sept Sept 9P: -55% in 6 days
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$KRE Oct 59C SCALE: +59% in 4 days
Closed Positions
$QLD Oct 101C SCALE: +104% in 1 day
$KRE Sept 50P: -78% in 10 days
$BYON Sept Sept 9P: -55% in 6 days
$KRE Oct 59C SCALE: +59% in 4 days
$KRE: WTH?
Is $KRE ever going to go down?
Why are you now LONG??
I am still very bearish the #CRE sector and still intend to go short with a large portion of my portfolios, when price says to get macro short. However, while I am waiting I am going long for a shorter term trade based on the price action.
This is exactly what I am talking about when I say I will "Trade around the/a Core position." A Core position is one that is over 4-6 months in duration and one that due to the macro picture I believe provides an outsized R opportunity. In this case that would be my $KRE and $VNQ short LEAPs.
The new LONG trade, so opposite of my Core postion, is because the daily chart and my analysis are pointing to a long direction break
with momentum. I am trading both "sides" or rather directions but different durations.
I continue to see reports that Banks are extending and pretending like there is no tomorrow. Because if they stop, for some of them there won't be. The latest method is a suggestion from a regional Fed that if Banks moved their crap loans and reclassified them for accounting purposes it would give banks with serious balance sheet problems even more time.
Since This sets up exactly what I have been saying will need to occur before the #CRE industry finally pivots to meltdown mode: the industry needs to exhaust all ways to pretend they don't have any poblems and this will work until one of the members either is forced to liquidate their #CRE or one of the members decides it wants out of #CRE and it doesn't care about the losses it takes.
What's interesting to me is the correlation between the market behavior in 2008 and the market behavior today. It absolutely is the same where participants are "hoping" that something will allow them to survive the consequences of greed and taking on too much risk. This all should sound eerily familiar as it is the same exact cycle that retail investors go through with losing positions. And just as it never works for retail it will not work for the #CRE market also. The consequences are coming and there is no way to stop them without further significantly damaging the structure of the US economy.
THE INVISIBLE HAND:
I have been commenting to VIPs that there is an "Invisible Hand" that is returned to the market. What I mean by this that under the surface of the market there are things at work that are supporting the market. Of course, this is great while it lasts. Some of the things supporting the market are: the Fed "Put" with Powell's confirmation of a pivot toward cutting rates, the Carry Trade, the Corporate Buy Back period being open. But there is a warning for today's market found in past activity: the spread between the $USD and the $JPY is extremely wide and therefore some reversion to the mean is possible. In this case if the $JPY reverses and strengthens it will put downward pressure on the $USD and therefore the stock market. Is this an anomaly or is this a harbinger of bad times? I don't know because in and of itself it would be bad for US stocks if the $JPY is bid up again. Nothing actionable at the moment but with the $JPY near a price area that is supportive it is something I will be watching.
A BIT OF HISTORY:
Purely from a "data source" standpoint I thought it would be worthwhile to look at some of my past opinions and see how they have played out:
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Last year at this time experts were calling for six rate cuts. I said there would be none.
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Last year at this time experts were not talking about a recession when I was saying we were in one and it would get works. It is.
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Last year all of the experts were (and some of them are still idiotically talking about it) saying the Fed could engineer a "Soft Landing" despite the fact that they had NEVER been able to do so in the past. Not one single time. And yet here we are today.
My point in listing these examples is not some "ego-stroke" for me. It is meant to provide evidence that as a predictive data source, I am pretty good. Therefore my response to those who think #CRE will just be able to putter forward without any further damage? You are wrong. I am right.
Tales from the Dark Side:
The Quiet Influence of Working at a Firm
I make a big deal about the fact that I worked at a truly independent IB with no requirements to support their deals or any product. That is not to say that I didn't feel some pressure sometimes, especially when it was an investment banking deal. However, I'd like to explain why professionals in the business succumb to the same "Groupthink" that can occur in real life.
At almost all investment firms they will have relationships with mutual fund companies, annuity companies, firms the create non-traded investment products such as private REITs, tax credit programs, real estate and many more assets. These relationships like to visit the firm on at least an every 6-month rotation and even more frequently if the firm has participated in a related investment product. To put it frankly, it is difficult if not impossible to remain neutral as a professional because you have so many marketing attempts being thrown at you as well as the pressure from your firm hire-ups.
The first two firms I worked at had products or stocks that while you were not told outright to buy them you would be viewed negatively if you made it a habit of not participating. Firms like AG Edwards and Wells Fargo absolutely have preferred product lists and buying them counts as a positive when it comes to promotion or bonus time. THIS is not being "unbiased." This is exactly what I am talking about that even those advisors that want to do good and be independent find it near impossible to do so. I thankfully learned this very early on in my career.
Early on in the business a beautiful young woman used to come to the office and meet with a couple of the brokers. Brokers who looked successful by the way they dressed and by the way they talked. I would watch at these guys would have long meetings behind closed doors with her and of course, I was very curious. When I inquired I was told that the women represented exciting product that IF I found a way to survive and stay at the firm, I might be able to meet with her. Classic "take away" sales tactic.
Eventually I was told that I had "qualified" to meet with her and as the day approached I was super excited, for obvious and unrelated reasons. This was going to be one of my very first one on one meetings with an investment product professional and I viewed that as another huge step to being a successful money manager.
Upon entering the room with her we engaged in small talk but being who I am, I wanted to get straight to the point so I started peppering her with questions - her responses follow:
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Does it (the investment) do well in up and down markets? - yes, it doesn't really matter the market.
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Are other professionals happy with her product? - yes, she hasn't gotten any complaints expecially since each person can do customization.
Hold up! I could "customize" the investment product? This was a game changer and I was thrilled! She could see my excitement and looked at me a little oddly. I continued to express my amazement that she had a product that I could customize to my liking. Her look now became one of pure confusion.
She was not there promoting an investment product. She was a haberdasher. She was a rep for a custom suit maker. All the while I was asking her what I thought were pointed questions about her investment product. She thought I was insane.
That day I learned many lessons. Don't trust the other idiots I worked with. Don't assume things based on how people dress. Don't speak before you know what the topic is. And custom suits are really really nice.
$ENVX and $EOSE
Price is "stuck" in an area with significant overhead resistance. On the daily chart price is being held down by the Point of Control at $11'ish. This area is where the most amount of volume in total has occurred in $ENVX, buys and sells.
Without a positive news release or some other outlier event I believe that $ENVX price will drift down to that gap top at $8ish.
I am pleased to see that price has stopped falling but I think that has more to do with the overall market then with $ENVX itself.
Price is trying to break the July 15 high on the daily. A third candle will confirm consolidation which is more bullish than bearish. Any positive news and I believe the stock goes over $3.
Range is the same as it was two weeks ago: $1.50 to $2.50. Pateince.
$SPY
$SPY had broken out to the topside and remains within striking distance of all time highs.
I see more and more people calling for a top everyday. Yes, the top will come and when it does it could lead to a larger drawdown but for everyeone who has been calling for a top these past 5 months, wouldn't it better to wait until the top has happened??
$QQQ
The $QQQs actually have more room to run before hitting the all time highs so that's a positive. A negative is that the price just printed a HCD on Thursday so short term the Bulls will need to take out last Thursday's high in order to give the rally momentum. Don't forget $NVDA has earnings this week and I expect the market to key off of those, at least for a day or two. I would not expect $NVDA to have a different outlook than other AI chip providers although theirs might be more positive since they are the leader in the space.
This week's price action will be very telling as it will reveal if there is an appetite for more buying in tech. Last week's rally was retail heavy (with CTA's) so we will want to see that transition to more institutions.
ANNOUNCEMENTS
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In coming weeks I will be doing a special Podcast wherein I will share a complete professional history about myself, why I am doing this community and what my ultimate goals are. You are not going to want to miss it.
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I am also working on putting detail to my VIP curriculum in the form of a short book and I hope to have that done by the end of 2024.
Doom
Anti Doom
PODCAST:
The Podcast library is here.
VIDEOS:
The Video library is here.
Paid Memberships:
Look, there are a LOT of scammers out there on FinTwit. 99.99% of them care only about selling packages of crap. SOME OF THEM ARE CHARGING AS MUCH AS $5,000 PER MONTH! None of them include what helped make me a better trader: having a mentor. Having someone who will be your PERSONAL TEACHER, COACH AND ACCOUNTABILITY PARTNER. A Mentor that has over 90,000 hours of screen time. That by itself is invaluable.
People ask why I charge. First, I want only VIPs that are committed and "having skin in the game" guarantees this. Second, because my time is valuable.
See what others are saying:
Don't forget the Discord live chat is STILL FREE but it will be closing to new members soon. In fact, we have already started removing non-active members.
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In the meantime, come and join us - its the best community out there: Discord.
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Also, be sure to check out the new page for Daytrading on the website, run by the fine gents @BaconTurkeyClub and @Juggernaut. If you ever wanted to learn or just watch two pros daytrade live, they are at it every day here: DiscordFuturesChannel.
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Finally, be sure to check out VampireTrades and his amazing penny stock trades.
Thankyou Family!
theBoss
Nothing above is investment advice nor should it be construed as investment advice. It is offerred for entertainment purposes only. Always consult your advisors before investing any money. Do not "follow" or "mirror" any trade ideas provided. Mr.NotAdvice is not a licensed or registered investment advisor. Do your own research.