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Newsletter - 7/14/2024

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It might seem as though the world is burning down around us and to a large degree, that would be accurate.  However, even though I remain resolute that the worst is still ahead of us, I am also reminded that much of my perception is due to my perspective and that my perspective is biased.

During my three decades of professional experience I lived multiple once in a lifetime events where my entire focus was on protecting capital and it served me well.  However, if I do not remain congnizent of my own experiences and 

and how they influence my current perspectives I will allow myself to become a victim of my own biases.  It is during times of uncertainness and chaos that often opportunities of a lifetime occur if you are willing to put aside your own biases and filter out all the noise.

The opportunities that I mention are not just financial.  Personally, I am taking this time to teach my children how to think and reason for themselves, how to gauge what is factual information and what is programming.  I am teaching my children how to form their own views and be able to support those views without soundbites and tweets that happen to support their view.  

We live in tough times.  A time where "truths" are not truthful, lying is acceptable and attacking those who think for themselves is supported.  If you allow yourself to be swept up in this tsunami of hyper personalized viewpoints and supercharged moral relativism then you will end up believing nothing, least of all your own personal opinions.  Perhaps one of the greatest mistakes any of us can make is to fail to educate and teach, via our own actions, those around us who we love and care for.  We have been taught that what the "group thinks" is far superior to our own individual views.

This philosophy is why I do what I do.  I cannot count how many times I have been told "I cannot believe what I used to think was a good return" or "I thought that there was no way that I could manage my own money" or something to that effect.  Empowering people to break free of what they have been programmed to believe is the second most powerful thing I can do.  And in the same way that I teach I encourage you to teach those around you.  Teach them to think for themselves, to question everything, to move away from emotion based decision making and back toward reason and logic.  If you can change how people view the world, even if it's just financially, then you will have done that person a great service.  And don't be lazy - don't quit after the first or second attempt.  What you are teaching and sharing could be THE difference maker in that person's life.  It was for mine.

Changes:

I am constantly looking for ways to improve the content I deliver as well as the content itself.  To that end, I have decided to make some changes to what I talk about in this NewsLetter.  As always I welcome suggestions how to make anything I do better so feel free to reach out and share.

Starting today I will be changing the following:

  • Removing the Sector Performance section.

  • Removing the Open Positions section as that activity is for VIPs and Traders only I am communicate with them constantly via private text.

  • Removing the Doom update section - there is no need to keep updating when I am not in a trade in those assets.

  • Removing $SPY and $QQQ charts - I discuss these ad nauseum in the Discord chat.

  • Adding a new section called "This and That" where I will comment on financial events and news that I found to be interesting or important.

  • Adding a new section that will focus on life lessons I learned as a professional, Tales from the Darkside.

  • Adding a new section of charts of stocks I will be watching for the upcoming week, most of the time without commentary.

Week in Review

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Model Portfolio - since 5/9/2023

This Week:

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Last Week:

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I have been adjusting my position sizes DOWN due to the fact that the market has been struggling these past weeks.  There is still no directional trend and risk remains high due to many varaibles that I have discussed before.

This week I was on the losing end of volatility as the market drop on Thursday forced me to take two quick stops as well as eroded all of my profits in $PLTR.  It happens and after review, there is nothing I would do differently.

Closed trades this past week:

  • $VTR Aug 52.50C - closed Runners for +25% in 7 days

  • $WBA Aug 10P - scaled for +68% in 7 days

  • $CENX Sept 21C - stopped out for -23% in 4 days

  • $WBA Aug 10P - closed Runners for +10% in 8 days

  • $LOVE Aug 22.5C - closed for +56% in 10 days

  • $AFRM Sept 25P - stopped for -31% in 3 days

  • $PLTR Sept 30C - closed for +.52% in 3 days

  • $AMZN Aug 220C - stopped for -31% in 2 days

Closed Positions

$VTR Aug 52.5C: +50% (4days); +25% (7days)

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$WBA Aug 10P: +68% (7days); +10% (8days)

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$CENX Sept 12C: -23% (4days)

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$LOVE: +56% (10days)

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$AFRM: -31% (3days)

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$PLTR: +.50% (3days)

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$AMZN: -31% (2days)

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This and That

It appears as though Jerome and Janet are engaged in some sneaky QE.  QE is not just when the government GIVES money to people and businesses, it's also when people and businesses receive a financial benefit that has the same effect as QE and in this case it's the UST allowing Banks to defer payments due to the Treasury thereby keeping those payments to loan, spend etc.  

The problem is by the Fed doing this, they are cancelling out the QT that they publicly state they are doing.  So beyond the lying and subterfuge is the fact that the Fed is NOT removing liquidity from the financial system, it is adding.

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At the same time the above is happening, out of the public's view of course, banks are borrowing money from the Fed at a rate not seen since the GFC.  These borrowed funds can be used to lend out, meet withdrawals or fill pressing net capital issues.  They can also be used for general operations but the issue is how much the banks are tapping the Fed.  It is concerning.

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The financial system is preparing for difficult times ahead.  They would not be increasing their borrowings AND reducing their payments if they were not trying to conserve assets and cash.  Perhaps its the fact earnings for banks will be out over the next couple of weeks or perhaps its because they know something we do not.  Whatever the reasons, there is no good possibility.

While I have been laughing at the possibility that small caps are going to lead the market higher I cannot ignore that my own bias might preclude me from seeing a trade opportunity.  If small caps are indeed breaking out, here are the levels that need to hold:

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Tales from the Dark Side

My first day / Labels don't matter

I remember my first day in the business like it was yesterday.  First, some background.

I entered the business at the tail end of the Penny Stock period.  For those of you who don't know this is the same period that was depicted in the Wolf of Wallstreet and Boiler Room, so you get the idea.

I had applied at three different firms: Dean Witter, Merril and a small Midwest penny firm; I didn't care how I got in the business, I wanted in.

My first lesson in the business started immediately: it doesn't matter what you know, it matters who you know.  Both Dean Witter and Merrill required that candidates take internal tests in order to screen for candidates.  The penny firm didn't care because all they wanted were bodies to "dial for dollars."

It's important to know that when I was getting into the business I was at a point in my life where I had finally figured out what I wanted to do but I did not know how to gain access.  At the same time, I was pretty poor.  My dress shoes had holes in them and I used to go to Happy Hours even though I don't drink; I went because they had food and I could eat.

Anyway.  I took the tests at Dean and Merrill where I ended up being the highest score at Dean and in the top 10% at Merril.  I was absolutely ecstatic but also nervous because when I saw the other candidates, they all wore very nice suits and expensive shoes.  I figured that I would just do what I do: work harder than everyone else and succeed.  I was completely wrong.

Neither Merrill nor Dean offered me a job even though they did congratulate me for my test scores.  I was surprised that I was passed over for positions that by their own metrics, I was one of the best candidates for.  I could not figure out why until many years later.

The reason I was not hired was because I did not come from a wealthy family nor did I have a circle of wealthy friends that I could reach out to and gain as immediate new clients.  It did not matter what my score was what mattered was who I knew.

Furthermore, I did not "look" the part.  My suit (I owned a single suit) was not from a haberdasher, was not custom and my ties (I owned 3 of them) were not silk.  My shoes were from Macy's so they didn't have a fancy Italian sounding name.

But those rejections are what led me to that first Penny firm and the path that led me to a firm I stayed at for over 25 years, which is unheard of in the business.

Years later I happened to be out at a lunch with clients.  I was wearing a custom suit, silk tie and fancy non-Macy shoes.  My cufflinks cost more than the total I had spent on my original suit and shoes.  As I was waiting for the server to approach I was engaged in some small talk when I heard a voice say to me "Holy crap man! I can't believe it's you~!"

The server was one of the guys from the Dean entrance exams.  He had graduated from an Ivy and had the nicest suit, the nicest shoes and a big fat Rolex.  His hair was always perfect and he always had money - his parents helped him out.  He had also been hired by Dean and yet less than 5 years later, he was waiting tables at an upscale restaurant.

I asked him how he was and he told me that Dean was a shithole.  They worked them 12 hours per day (I regularly put in 16 hour days) and they required that each of the new hires open accounts with at least 10 family and friends.  He told me that while he had done all of this, he realized that the shit he was being forced to buy for those clients was terrible and that usually it was just something the firm wanted to get rid of.  As he walked away I chuckled at just how badly I had judged what really matters in this business and in any business.

  • The person in the suit matters way more than the suit itself.

  • There is no business that hard work over time will not produce exceptional results.

  • Going to the "right" school or having the "right" last name only opens doors.  If you want to stick around, you have to stand out and the easiest way to do this is to work harder than anyone else, to learn more than anyone else, and to kiss a lot of frogs.

  • Watches can be borrowed (turns out the Rolex was his Dad's - and he lost it at a strip club).

Because of this early experience it was instilled in me that even if there were people who were smarter than me, most would not be willing to work as hard as I did at gaining knowledge and profiting from it.  It is one of the reasons I have so much confidence that how I do things works - because I have watched others try a different way and they have all failed.  Of course their failures were for varied reasons but at the end of the day, they all shared one thing in common: they had not worked for the opportunity but had been told that they were "perfect" for the job.  They had a false sense of self importance that had governed all of their decisions.  They did not have to scrum and get dirty.  And therefore their ability to do their job was severely hamstrung from the beginning.

I succeeded by the Grace of God and my willingness to do whatever it took to get the job done.  It is the same attitude I have today teaching and discovering investment opportunities.  I can continue to beat the "Big Boys" despite all of their advantages because I am willing to work harder then they are.  And I had the advantage that my suit label was Macy's and not some bespoke designer.  

I will leave you with this: if a guy like me with no college studies focused on finance or economics, with shoes from Macy's (I really liked Macy's, no?), a tie from Kohl's and a suit from Foley's, who started at a Penny firm, can achieve all the opportunities that I have, than anyone can learn how to trade.  Anyone.

Lables don't matter.  Who you know doesn't matter.

What you do with the opportunities and challenges in your life will be the single greatest determining factor of success or failure.  

Are you ready to get started?

Charts of Interest

TOS was down when I was doing this section, hence the charts are from FinViz.

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Doom 

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Anti Doom

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PODCAST:

The Podcast library is here.

VIDEOS:

The Video library is here.

Paid Memberships:

Look, there are a LOT of scammers out there on FinTwit.  99.99% of them care only about selling packages of crap.  SOME OF THEM ARE CHARGING AS MUCH AS $5,000 PER MONTH!  None of them include what helped make me a better trader: having a mentor.  Having someone who will be your PERSONAL TEACHER, COACH AND ACCOUNTABILITY PARTNER.  A Mentor that has over 90,000 hours of screen time.  That by itself is invaluable.

People ask why I charge.  First, I want only VIPs that are committed and "having skin in the game" guarantees this.  Second, because my time is valuable.

See what others are saying:

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MERCH STORE IS OPEN AND LIVE!

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Don't forget the Discord live chat is STILL FREE but it will be closing to new members soon.  In fact, we have already started removing non-active members. 

  • In the meantime, come and join us - its the best community out there: Discord.

  • Also, be sure to check out the new page for Daytrading on the website, run by the fine gents @BaconTurkeyClub and @Juggernaut.  If you ever wanted to learn or just watch two pros daytrade live, they are at it every day here: DiscordFuturesChannel.

  • Finally, be sure to check out VampireTrades and his amazing penny stock trades.

Thankyou Family!

theBoss

Nothing above is investment advice nor should it be construed as investment advice.  It is offerred for entertainment purposes only.  Always consult your advisors before investing any money.  Do not "follow" or "mirror" any trade ideas provided.  Mr.NotAdvice is not a licensed or registered investment advisor.  Do your own research.

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