I wanted to take some time to comment on what I think the rest of 2024 will bring.  You know how negative I am on the current geopolitical and global economic situation.  I am constantly checking myself to make sure that I am not being biased or that I am not only reading data and articles that support my point of view.  To be honest, it is a mentally exhausting process and I do some part of it every single day.  

People always talk about wanting to be like big money traders who have the conviction to go counter to the investing crowd when data supports doing so but when the time comes, very very few have the conviction to follow through.  I do not have such a problem because I have done this multiple times in my career - taken positions that are counter to the market and its direction.   Along with that type of decision come doubts, negative emotions and questioning myself.  But I remain firm in my belief that a downturn is inevitable and that there is a growing probability that it could be an extremely bad downturn for the markets.

​

As it stands currently, here are a couple of events along with a rough estimation of what chances I believe they have to come to fruition.

​

• The Presidential Election will be delayed - I honestly give this a 50/50 chance.  Regardless of where you fall on the political spectrum there can be no doubt that the divisiveness that exists in US politics is here to stay, a mirror of our society.  The fact that I give this even a 50/50 chance is simply mind-blowing to me but that is the current political culture.   If the POTUS election is delayed the markets will react very negatively but there will be "tells" that such an event on the horizon, such as the next item.

​​

• New Pandemic - The CDC this past week said that it is preparing for the Bird Flu to kill 1 in 4 Americans.  Now, we all know what an absolute shit criminal organization the CDC is but I cannot ignore the fact that the entire Bird Flu story is being supported and disseminated throughout the MSM.  This will be the reason they delay or go to all mail in ballots for the POTUS election.  I give this a 20/80 chance.

​​

• Depression - It has not been often in my 30-year career as a professional that I was concerned about a depression.  I wasn't concerned after the Asian Crisis, September 11, 2001, not even after 2008.  But I am concerned today because the wealth of data is so glaringly negative.  Job growth has stalled, inflation is going up, geopolitics is a mess with too many "flash points" to list and then there is Real Estate.  While 2008 occurred due to Single Family residential real estate, this time around it is most of the Real Estate industry, save raw land, that is teetering on the knife's edge with only the belief (ignorant belief) that the governments of the world will again bail out the sector pushing the stocks higher.  I have seen this so many times before where the stocks refuse to come down, until they don't and then they are unable to catch a bid.  I give this a 30/70 chance.​

​​

• Terrorist Attack on US Soil - Unfortunately with the recent open border there is no doubt that some bad actors got through.  Also unfortunately that is why I put the chances of this happening by the POTUS election at 40/60.  

​

Ok, those are "gimmees" - the "easy" calls for me to make.  Now let's get to some things that I think could happen but are sort of "tinfoil hat" in nature.

• Biden is not cognitively alert.  Period.  What is going on with him is a case of "Elder Abuse" in that a group of people are manipulating and taking advantage of a mentally impaired senior citizen.  Couple that with some bizarre words and actions, and I have been sitting here wondering how the heck the Dems want this guy as their candidate.  THEY DON'T.  They want Biden to fail and drop out but not before they are done raiding the US population of wealth.  Biden will drop out, either willfully or not willfully.  And he could even "pass away while sleeping" - the DC Swamp is truly evil.

​​

• The Fed wants the Treasury market to implode, and rising rates will do that.  Why?  Because if the Treasury market implodes all the foreigners that hold US debt will be then holding worthless paper.  Along with the American Public who owns 52% of Treasuries.  The foreign holders will be given the option" to exchange their worthless Treasuries for US Dollars.  

  • The first result would be that the US debt would go down, hugely.

  • The second result would be that the Dollar's position as a reserve currency AND the de facto trade currency would be cemented.  

  • The third result would be that such an injection of dollars into the global system would be the largest global stimulus ever.

​​

• Office CRE will not exist within 7 years.

​​

• The stock market will not collapse until we see bank failures, and they are coming.  The stock market NEVER wants to reverse a bullish trend.  And this bullish trend has been fueled by the drug called liquidity and it has permeated the entire global society.  Until enough people start to be personally hit by the quickly deteriorating global economic picture, and I think that will be within the next 90 days, the market will find new or old reasons to go higher - even as the underlying structural numbers diverge.

​​

• While bank failures will be blamed, the unwind of the carry trade will be the REAL reason why the market dives.  

​

Look, I don't mean to bum you out.  And I am rarely a pessimist.  Even during the darkest days of the market that I have been through, I always believed better days were around the corner.  But I have never seen such a combination of negative factors occur all at the same time.  And more interestingly, they are all interrelated.  I intend to do as I have always done, make money.  But my opinion would be worth little if I wasn't completely frank with you.